World Test Championship 2023-25: Qualification scenarios for each team to qualify for WTC final. Who is leading the points table or who could be the dark horse?
India are playing the most Tests (10) in the last leg of the 2023-2025 World Test Championship (WTC) cycle. They are currently placed at the top of the standings and are favourites to make it to the final like the last two seasons. However, India shouldn’t take things for granted and must look to win as many matches as possible. If India falter in the 10 remaining Tests and other teams up their game in the remainder of the cycle, Rohit Sharma and his men may even be ousted from the race to the final. But considering India’s rich form in Test cricket in the past few seasons, this outcome is too far-fetched.
At the moment, India face a resurgent Bangladesh, who are coming from the highs of winning a Test series in Pakistan 2-0. Bangladesh have the arsenal to give a tough fight to India in conditions similar to their home.
Here’s a look at the qualification scenarios of the teams for a spot in the WTC final. (Please note that a team would need to reach a points percentage system (PCT) of at least 60 to stay in the hunt for the final. The last season saw Australia (66.7 PCT) and India (58.8 PCT) reach the final.)
Current standings, WTC 2023-25
| Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Draw | PT | PCT |
| India | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 74 | 68.52 |
| Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 90 | 62.50 |
| New Zealand | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 36 | 50.00 |
| Bangladesh | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 45.83 |
| Sri Lanka | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 36 | 42.86 |
| England | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 81 | 42.19 |
| South Africa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 38.89 |
| Pakistan | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 19.05 |
| West Indies | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 18.52 |
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India
India are at the top of the standings with a PCT of 68.52. To reach a PCT of 60 and above at the end of the WTC cycle, they need a minimum of five wins or more or at least five wins and a draw in the remaining 10 Tests. With five Tests at home, India should be able to achieve this target. If India do not want Australia in the final, they should look to beat them in as many Tests as possible Down Under and hope other teams do better than the Aussies.
Australia
Australia are placed second with a PCT of 62.50. But they are far from securing a spot in the final. Australia have five Tests against India at home and two Tests against Sri Lanka away. They are aware a slip or two against India or Sri Lanka could cost them a spot in the final if other teams pull up their socks in the meantime. For the record, Australia need at least four Test wins or three Test wins and three draws to stay in the hunt for the final.
Dark horses
Bangladesh’s hopes would be up after the 2-0 win against Pakistan. However, they have their task cut out as they need to win at least five Tests out of the last six Tests (two each against India, West Indies, and South Africa) to keep their PCT above 60.
New Zealand are at No. 3 in the points table currently. They have to win six Tests or five Tests and two draws out of a total of eight matches to get to a PCT of above 60. But they have their task cut out as five of those Tests are on sub-continental conditions in India and Sri Lanka.
Same boat
Sri Lanka and South Africa have six matches left, and a win in each of the matches will improve their chances of making it to the final. Although five Test wins would help, they would have to depend on other teams then.
Almost out: Pakistan, West Indies, England
They are too far behind to climb up the points table to make it to the final. However, England have produced some exciting Test cricket in the season and deserve applause.
Read More: India lead WTC 25 Table with 68.51 PCT; Are they gearing up for a third straight Championship Final?
